A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."